This is where the story is now most focused: did Iran manage to smuggle out the 400kg of 60% enriched uranium? if they did, where to? do they have a secret enrichment facility? can they still weaponize? Everything I've read and heard up to this point seems to point to the fact that nobody knows for certain. As a rule I do not allow myself to bask in optimism when it comes to what our enemies are capable of, certainly not after Oct 7.
Much, indeed most, of what you write seems correct, and sobering. The one comment with which I take issue is that it is unclear whether the events of the last week have made a nuclear armed Iran, more or less likely. From all that we know, it just doesn’t seem credible to me that Iran would not have weaponised their enriched uranium in the near future. While we don’t know their current capabilities, I find it challenging to believe that building a bomb is less likely. I am convinced their intent has not changed; Israel’s destruction is a core tenet of their theology, but even if they did smuggle their enriched uranium out of Fordow in 19th July, as they now claim, they must surely be further away from building a working bomb.
This is where the story is now most focused: did Iran manage to smuggle out the 400kg of 60% enriched uranium? if they did, where to? do they have a secret enrichment facility? can they still weaponize? Everything I've read and heard up to this point seems to point to the fact that nobody knows for certain. As a rule I do not allow myself to bask in optimism when it comes to what our enemies are capable of, certainly not after Oct 7.
Much, indeed most, of what you write seems correct, and sobering. The one comment with which I take issue is that it is unclear whether the events of the last week have made a nuclear armed Iran, more or less likely. From all that we know, it just doesn’t seem credible to me that Iran would not have weaponised their enriched uranium in the near future. While we don’t know their current capabilities, I find it challenging to believe that building a bomb is less likely. I am convinced their intent has not changed; Israel’s destruction is a core tenet of their theology, but even if they did smuggle their enriched uranium out of Fordow in 19th July, as they now claim, they must surely be further away from building a working bomb.